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Government of Somalia Takes Over
Dec. 28th, 2006 02:15 pm
It appears that today the official government of Somalia, supported by Ethiopia, has taken control of Mogadishu (Somalia's largist city) for the first time in 16 years.
It began 8 days ago (Dec 20th) )with forces fo the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), the fundamentalist Islamic faction that controlled most of Somalia including Mogadishu, advancing on Baidoa, the headquarters of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Baidoa is 159 miles NE of Mogadishu. ICU spokespersons predicted a swift victory. Ethiopian reinforcements, including T-55 tanks quickly joined the battle, leading to intense fighting for several days. News stories seem to include a lot of claims of ICU victories, either of the battle as a whole or over various outlying villages, stories which are then refuted by local residents or journalists on the ground. On Christmas Day there were reports of dozens of Ethiopian tanks moving south toward Jowhar, potentially flanking the ICU positions, and on the 26th ICU forces reportedly began fleeing from the Battle of Baidoa, abondoning their heavy weapons.
Meanwhile, some 250 miles to the northeast, Ethiopian forces supported another anti-ICU faction, the militia of Galmudug province, in pushing ICU forces back into the neighbouring province of Galgadud, in fighting on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in the Battle of Brandiradly.
Also between Dec 24-25th, Ethiopian forces retook Beledweyne 60 miles to the north of Baidoa. Last August ICU forces had taken the city and the TFG-appointed governor had fled to Ethiopia. On retaking the city, the former governor declared that now that the town was liberated it would be once again legal to chew khat, and trucks of khat rolling in the next day were met with cheering. (Maybe its just a really serious "legalize it" campaigne?)
Yesterday morning the last major ICU stronghold of Jowhar fell after only a few hours of early morning fighting. The former mayor of Jowhar reportedly led the attack while wearing a "I Love Jowhar" t-shirt.
Yesterday government forces arrived on the outskirts of Mogadishu, but halted their advance - "We are not going to fight for Mogadishu to avoid civilian casualties...Our troops will surround Mogadishu until they surrender," stated a TFG ambassador. However, already ICU troops were being seen changing out of their uniforms and local tribal militias were changing allegiancies and reversing ICU policies. Earlier today the ICU ceased all resistence in Mogadishu, and the TFG forces began securing the city.
ICU forces still control much land outside the combat areas, it will be interesting to see if in the coming days these lands revert to TFG control or hold out. I am guessing they will at least change their allegiance and assimilate into the local tribal militias.
The UN Security Council discussed asking for a cease fire but ultimately declined to do so, seeing as the "good guys" appear to be winning.
Now the real question is, seeing as this all started with the ICU advancing on the TFG with high hopes of victory, was this all just an extremely successful counterattack, or a premeditated operation which fooled the ICU completely?
